CS2 Case Odds Explained: What Are Your Real Chances?

2026-09-27 · 5 min read · Unboxing

Every official Counter-Strike 2 case uses the same rarity tiers. Valve has published the approximate odds, and they explain why knives are so rare.

Official case odds (approximate)

- Mil-Spec (blue): about 79.9% - Restricted (purple): about 16% - Classified (pink): about 3.2% - Covert (red): about 0.64% - Rare special item (knife or gloves): about 0.26%, roughly 1 in 385 cases

StatTrak versions appear on about 10% of eligible drops.

Why most cases lose money

A key plus a case usually costs more than the average value of what drops. The expected value of most official cases is below the cost of opening them, which is why opening "for profit" rarely works over time.

How case sites are different

Third-party case sites build their own cases with their own odds. That's good and bad: - They publish odds per item, so you can see the exact chances. - They set a house edge per case, which can be higher or lower than you'd expect. - Cheap cases with flat odds swing less; expensive "1% knife" cases swing a lot.

Reading a case page

Look for the list of items, their odds and their current value. Multiply each item's value by its odds and add them up: that's the case's expected return. Compare it with the price.

Find sites that publish clear odds in our unboxing rankings.